Posted on
January 14, 2025
Impact Investing in the Next Trump Administration
A lively discussion where we will review and expand on our "New Impact Playbook".
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The information contained in this document is for background purposes only, does not purport to be full or complete, does not constitute investment advice and may not be relied on. In particular, strategies have been and will continue to be adjusted, modified, developed, added and/or removed, and there can be no assurance that the Fund will in the future exhibit the same target risk allocations or other characteristics noted herein. On the contrary, these characteristics will change in the future, perhaps materially. No prospective investor should invest based on the information contained herein.
A lively discussion where we will review and expand on our "New Impact Playbook".
A lively discussion where we will review and expand on our "New Impact Playbook".
Looking ahead to the next Trump presidency, we see no shortage of opportunities despite preliminary fears of receding interest in sustainability. While we do not expect the pending administration to be overtly supportive of environmental and social solutions, there are plenty of opportunities ahead.
Looking ahead to the next Trump presidency, we see no shortage of opportunities despite preliminary fears of receding interest in sustainability. While we do not expect the pending administration to be overtly supportive of environmental and social solutions, there are plenty of opportunities ahead.
After the 2024 U.S. presidential election results, the stock market took off like a rocket. There is a lot in that, but the expectation of corporate tax cuts and a more relaxed regulatory environment suggests a strong glide path for the economy. We see a lot of fortunes changing concerning Impact Investing, and while many headwinds have accumulated on the horizon, there are some tailwinds we can use to our advantage. We would avoid interest rate-sensitive areas like Renewable Energy and favor Financial Inclusion’s digital and cryptocurrency focus. Aside from the election, the Federal Reserve has begun an easing cycle, marked by a 50-basis point rate cut in September (and another 25bps in November). However, the pending Republican administration’s likely policies of lower taxes and less regulation suggest inflationary pressures could build and slow the current easing cycle. Still, based on our 45-year analysis of Fed easing cycles, equity markets will likely continue to climb unless the current economic challenges eclipse those of the post-internet bubble burst or the Great Financial Crisis—even beyond the current Trump Bump.
After the 2024 U.S. presidential election results, the stock market took off like a rocket. There is a lot in that, but the expectation of corporate tax cuts and a more relaxed regulatory environment suggests a strong glide path for the economy. We see a lot of fortunes changing concerning Impact Investing, and while many headwinds have accumulated on the horizon, there are some tailwinds we can use to our advantage. We would avoid interest rate-sensitive areas like Renewable Energy and favor Financial Inclusion’s digital and cryptocurrency focus. Aside from the election, the Federal Reserve has begun an easing cycle, marked by a 50-basis point rate cut in September (and another 25bps in November). However, the pending Republican administration’s likely policies of lower taxes and less regulation suggest inflationary pressures could build and slow the current easing cycle. Still, based on our 45-year analysis of Fed easing cycles, equity markets will likely continue to climb unless the current economic challenges eclipse those of the post-internet bubble burst or the Great Financial Crisis—even beyond the current Trump Bump.
Throughout the world, large wealth gaps persist perpetuated by an archaic financial system that is failing marginalized populations. Increasing access to loans and other means of financing provides opportunities for narrowing that gap. Technology has enabled a lot of financial inclusion by eliminating geographical barriers, but challenges remain for those with little or no credit history.
Throughout the world, large wealth gaps persist perpetuated by an archaic financial system that is failing marginalized populations. Increasing access to loans and other means of financing provides opportunities for narrowing that gap. Technology has enabled a lot of financial inclusion by eliminating geographical barriers, but challenges remain for those with little or no credit history.
Our second annual report reviewing the impact within the 3D Impact portfolio. By leveraging financial resources and strategic partnerships, the portfolio seeks to create a continued sustainable impact for environmental, social, and economic development. The defined KPIs will ensure a measurable and transparent approach to assessing the fund's progress and effectiveness in generating positive change.
Our second annual report reviewing the impact within the 3D Impact portfolio. By leveraging financial resources and strategic partnerships, the portfolio seeks to create a continued sustainable impact for environmental, social, and economic development. The defined KPIs will ensure a measurable and transparent approach to assessing the fund's progress and effectiveness in generating positive change.
While Safety & Security is a wide-ranging topic from classic physical locks to protective apparel, the rapid digitalization of our economy has created systemic vulnerability. In an effort to protect assets from this massive threat, Cybersecurity spending has mushroomed in recent years. This spending was only recently eclipsed by the push for Artificial Intelligence (AI) projects, which make the whole digital security conversation even more interesting.
While Safety & Security is a wide-ranging topic from classic physical locks to protective apparel, the rapid digitalization of our economy has created systemic vulnerability. In an effort to protect assets from this massive threat, Cybersecurity spending has mushroomed in recent years. This spending was only recently eclipsed by the push for Artificial Intelligence (AI) projects, which make the whole digital security conversation even more interesting.
Obtaining healthcare access is challenged across generations, cultures, and regions. Attaining good access to care is important for promoting and maintaining health, preventing and managing disease, reducing unnecessary disability and premature death, and achieving Health Equity for all. Passcode: z5iZd.c%
Obtaining healthcare access is challenged across generations, cultures, and regions. Attaining good access to care is important for promoting and maintaining health, preventing and managing disease, reducing unnecessary disability and premature death, and achieving Health Equity for all. Passcode: z5iZd.c%
Access to education is one of our greatest social challenges. As the school year comes to a close and graduations have come and gone, now is the time to reflect on how global access to education has evolved. Passcode: t9Gg!0gJ
Access to education is one of our greatest social challenges. As the school year comes to a close and graduations have come and gone, now is the time to reflect on how global access to education has evolved. Passcode: t9Gg!0gJ
Demand for climate solutions is cooling as the capital intense industry contends with higher rates. Where can an investor find new opportunities within Impact Investing? Seeking out companies working to improve social well-being has the potential to diversify a portfolio, add to returns, and be a significant driver of Impact. Passcode: Msx$.!1+
Demand for climate solutions is cooling as the capital intense industry contends with higher rates. Where can an investor find new opportunities within Impact Investing? Seeking out companies working to improve social well-being has the potential to diversify a portfolio, add to returns, and be a significant driver of Impact. Passcode: Msx$.!1+
While the S&P 500 continues to flirt with all-time highs, it has been on the back of a handful of mega-sized companies. This dynamic has been building for nearly six years, and as our historical analysis reveals, we are likely to soon see a sharp reversal. Large companies, and their stocks, have sucked up all investor interest as slower economic data has led to crowding in the comparatively better growth of Artificial Intelligence (AI) related exposures. We have seen this dynamic before, notably in the later-cycle stages of the economy, although timing has varied. What has been consistent though, over all the time periods we reviewed, was a strong snapback in the smaller, “riskier,” stocks – typically after a confidence boost like the completion of an election or imminent interest rate cut.
While the S&P 500 continues to flirt with all-time highs, it has been on the back of a handful of mega-sized companies. This dynamic has been building for nearly six years, and as our historical analysis reveals, we are likely to soon see a sharp reversal. Large companies, and their stocks, have sucked up all investor interest as slower economic data has led to crowding in the comparatively better growth of Artificial Intelligence (AI) related exposures. We have seen this dynamic before, notably in the later-cycle stages of the economy, although timing has varied. What has been consistent though, over all the time periods we reviewed, was a strong snapback in the smaller, “riskier,” stocks – typically after a confidence boost like the completion of an election or imminent interest rate cut.
Having recently taken corporate operations and intelligence digitally (and online), Cyber Security was an obvious urgency for Chief Tech Officers (CTOs). However, these executives have been making hard budgeting decisions with the recent massive appeal of Alternative Intelligence (AI) innovations. We can see that in the sales numbers of the industry's dichotomy. Separately, the Magnificent 7 have finally succumbed to broader forces as their glory stories have proven mortal. Even as initial cracks emerged in the outlooks for this group and the broader economy, the stocks powered higher, although divergence emerged. Now, it appears the entire group has finally rolled over, likely marking the final phase of capitulation that all stocks are more challenging to own as economic uncertainty grows.
Having recently taken corporate operations and intelligence digitally (and online), Cyber Security was an obvious urgency for Chief Tech Officers (CTOs). However, these executives have been making hard budgeting decisions with the recent massive appeal of Alternative Intelligence (AI) innovations. We can see that in the sales numbers of the industry's dichotomy. Separately, the Magnificent 7 have finally succumbed to broader forces as their glory stories have proven mortal. Even as initial cracks emerged in the outlooks for this group and the broader economy, the stocks powered higher, although divergence emerged. Now, it appears the entire group has finally rolled over, likely marking the final phase of capitulation that all stocks are more challenging to own as economic uncertainty grows.
Energy is fundamental to everything we do, but it is a capital-intensive business. Social solution investments are comparatively advantaged and offer diversification within Impact approaches. In this month’s Impact Alert, we explore these climate headwinds and opportunities available beyond environmental strategies.
Energy is fundamental to everything we do, but it is a capital-intensive business. Social solution investments are comparatively advantaged and offer diversification within Impact approaches. In this month’s Impact Alert, we explore these climate headwinds and opportunities available beyond environmental strategies.
Cryptocurrencies mature with deeper markets regardless of recent increased volatility. While we expected the run-up to the SEC approval of spot Bitcoin ETF’s, the magnitude of increased traded value has been impressive. These markets are here to stay; however, evolving exposure is necessary. Looking at the “Magnificent 7” stocks that have handily beaten the market over the past five years, we see cracks emerging as each group member has varied cyclical exposure. Consumer products and mobile devices will likely slow faster than newer technologically driven Artificial Intelligence and Data Centers, leading to divergent performance across these stocks.
Cryptocurrencies mature with deeper markets regardless of recent increased volatility. While we expected the run-up to the SEC approval of spot Bitcoin ETF’s, the magnitude of increased traded value has been impressive. These markets are here to stay; however, evolving exposure is necessary. Looking at the “Magnificent 7” stocks that have handily beaten the market over the past five years, we see cracks emerging as each group member has varied cyclical exposure. Consumer products and mobile devices will likely slow faster than newer technologically driven Artificial Intelligence and Data Centers, leading to divergent performance across these stocks.
Harmony Capital Advisors, LLC has created Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) to measure the impact of these solutions to ensure that portfolio companies are achieving both our return and sustainability objectives. While financial returns are straightforward to calculate, KPIs can be more difficult with data availability and comparability lagging or absent. Harmony Capital has designed KPIs for over 80% of our portfolio companies, in some cases creating proprietary data sets and benchmarks. The fund focuses on “8 Vectors of Impact”, created by mapping the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) across the standard GICS sectors of traditional investment metrics. By leveraging financial resources and strategic partnerships, the fund seeks to create a continued sustainable impact for environmental, social, and economic development. The defined KPIs will ensure a measurable and transparent approach to assessing the fund's progress and effectiveness in generating positive change.
Harmony Capital Advisors, LLC has created Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) to measure the impact of these solutions to ensure that portfolio companies are achieving both our return and sustainability objectives. While financial returns are straightforward to calculate, KPIs can be more difficult with data availability and comparability lagging or absent. Harmony Capital has designed KPIs for over 80% of our portfolio companies, in some cases creating proprietary data sets and benchmarks. The fund focuses on “8 Vectors of Impact”, created by mapping the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) across the standard GICS sectors of traditional investment metrics. By leveraging financial resources and strategic partnerships, the fund seeks to create a continued sustainable impact for environmental, social, and economic development. The defined KPIs will ensure a measurable and transparent approach to assessing the fund's progress and effectiveness in generating positive change.
Encouraging Start to 2023! A lot of the negative trends from years' end, primarily risk appetites, reversed sharply in 1Q. However, there are clearly some new themes and trends emerging, particularly as the economy moves closer toward a recession.
Encouraging Start to 2023! A lot of the negative trends from years' end, primarily risk appetites, reversed sharply in 1Q. However, there are clearly some new themes and trends emerging, particularly as the economy moves closer toward a recession.
Thank goodness we’ve made it through all of the market’s gloom and doom…or have we?! Stock markets discount the future, and with so much uncertainty, no wonder markets have been volatile. But is that set to end? As uncertainty peaks, investors look for predictability. Maybe there are some clues from how the most predictable companies’, Consumer Staples, stocks trade. History suggests outperformance periods are limited; perhaps expectations reset fast? Plus, fun historical anecdote study from past Bear/Bull inflections. Apparently, someone has to go to jail before the Bull market returns. Expectations reset.
Thank goodness we’ve made it through all of the market’s gloom and doom…or have we?! Stock markets discount the future, and with so much uncertainty, no wonder markets have been volatile. But is that set to end? As uncertainty peaks, investors look for predictability. Maybe there are some clues from how the most predictable companies’, Consumer Staples, stocks trade. History suggests outperformance periods are limited; perhaps expectations reset fast? Plus, fun historical anecdote study from past Bear/Bull inflections. Apparently, someone has to go to jail before the Bull market returns. Expectations reset.
